Hello, and welcome back to McGuckin’s Weekly Digest, the weekly politics blog which aims to make sense of what’s been happening in the murky world of politics in NI, the U.K. and the USA over the last week or so. I can’t possibly cover everything, as even on a quiet week that would be virtually impossible within this accessible, 10 minute format. The sheer amount of time required would also quite probably lead to me living in my garage/car/garden shed/tent, if you catch my drift? So, in the interests of maintaining blissfully harmonious domestic relations, here is my selective take on this week’s events. Again, I’ve held off on hitting the publish button at the usual Sunday/Monday am slot, as I was waiting to hear the details of Boris Johnston’s so called Roadmap for easing the current anti-Covid restrictions. As always, though, I shall begin in N. Ireland.
DUP Minister, Diane Dodds encapsulated her Party’s current contradictions over Brexit and the Irish Sea border perfectly this week, by performing a dramatic u-turn within 24 hours! It was a 360 degree doughnut any boy racer would be proud of! In the Assembly on Tuesday, Mrs Dodds appeared to reject a proposal highlighted by the SDLP’s Matthew O’Toole, which would reduce the scale of the new internal UK trade frontier. A Swiss-style UK veterinary and plant agreement with the EU to remove many of the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks between GB and NI. Switzerland follows EU rules on agri-food, even though as a non-EU member it has no democratic decision-making power over those rules.
At present, it is only N. Ireland which has to follow EU regulations relevant to the EU’s single market for goods and customs union, but Diane Dodds rejected the suggestion of the whole UK aligning with the EU in a limited way to reduce the scale of the Irish Sea border. The DUP Minister, who is a committed Brexiteer, told Mr O’Toole that “the Swiss-type arrangement that he talks about requires the whole of the UK slavishly to follow EU rules in every respect” and dismissed such an arrangement out of hand.
However, following a political backlash to Mrs Dodds’ comments, culminating in Ulster Unionist leader Steve Aiken’s interview with Good Morning Ulster on Wednesday, she performed an about turn. Mr Aiken told the BBC that “when she was given the opening to point out that here is something that could help dismantle the Irish Sea border, she seemed to go down the line of we need to be following the hard Brexit path and that is not what we need to do – anything we can do to break down the border is something that we should be doing”. Within the hour, Mrs Dodds appeared on the same programme to state that she would now accept such an arrangement. How strange? Would it be possible that the DUP have adopted a position on supporting a hard Brexit on one hand, yet seeking to dismantle the NI Protocol and subsequent Irish Sea border on the other hand, which is simply incompatible and not accepting of reality? Surely not! 🧐
They haven’t gone away, you know? Not so much a certain Republican paramilitary organisation, but rather the seemingly constant furore surrounding the funeral of a certain former member of said organisation. Yes, the Bobby Storey funeral story was back in the news this week, again! And the BBC’s Stephen Nolan, as well as his increasingly regular sidekick, Stormont’s resident curmudgeon, Jim Allister, were all over it, again! If you remember, Mr Storey’s funeral last June caused considerable controversy due to the large crowds in attendance and the lack of social distancing in evidence. Deputy First Minister, Michelle O’Neill, in particular, quite rightly received a lot of criticism for justifying her attendance and actions at the mass gathering. Further to that, there was added controversy surrounding events at the Council run Roselawn Crematorium. Other families were kept at the gates of the facility, while up to 30 mourners were allowed inside to attend the service for Mr Storey. There were accusations that Sinn Fein were effectively allowed to have exclusive control of and access to the facility for the afternoon in question.
So, this week, an independent report, conducted by barrister Peter Coll, into Belfast City Council’s handling of the cremation of former IRA man Bobby Storey, concluded that it found no evidence the service was handled differently due to his connections to Sinn Fein. The report, which runs to more than 100 pages, is also believed to have found no evidence of political influence on council Chief Executive, Suzanne Wylie over the cremation. However, there was considerable consternation at this outcome, and not just from Jim Allister. Many of the relatives of the other families affected were understandably disappointed by the findings. The fact that the investigation had no power to compel witnesses to give evidence or be cross examined leaves it open to accusations of being a toothless, window dressing exercise, or a whitewash, even! Sinn Fein, however, will be more than happy to put this behind them. Nothing to see here, let’s move along now! Well, I’m with the wee curmudgeon on this one, I’m afraid, as I remain to be convinced! 🧐
Finally, for my N Ireland news at least, we have witnessed something quite rare in the recent political history of the state, In a highly unusual act of unity, the leaders of unionism have united to legally challenge the Irish Sea border, via a Judicial Review, arguing rather sensationally that it breaches the Act of Union and the Belfast Agreement.
The judicial review is to be brought at Belfast High Court, although may very well end up in the U.K. Supreme Court, and has been spearheaded by TUV leader and QC Jim Allister, former Brexit Party MEP Ben Habib and ex-Labour peer, Kate Hoey. DUP leader Arlene Foster and UUP leader Steve Aiken said later that they would also be supporting the case. An impressive and unprecedented show of unity, indeed!
The applicants will argue that the protocol conflicts with Article Six of the Act of Union (Ireland) Act 1800 which set out the requirement for free trade within the British Isles. They will also state that Stormont cross-community voting is “at the core of the constitutional settlement” flowing from the Belfast Agreement and that for the vote on the protocol to remove that mechanism is unlawful.
In support of the initiative, Arlene Foster said: “Fundamental to the Act of Union is unfettered trade throughout the United Kingdom. At the core of the Belfast Agreement was the principle of consent yet the Northern Ireland Protocol has driven a coach and horses through both the Act of Union and the Belfast Agreement.” However, SDLP leader Colum Eastwood commented that the legal action was “ill-judged and will only further entrench the febrile political environment as well as creating further uncertainty for people and businesses”. On the other hand, Former Ulster Unionist First Minister, David Trimble, said that the protocol has fundamentally undermined the 1998 Good Friday Agreement to which he was the critical unionist contributor. I think the legal challenge may be a tall order and could take months, or longer if it goes to the Supreme Court to reach a conclusion. By then, many of the issues around the new customs border may have been resolved to some degree. Nevertheless, this will be one we may well be returning to in the future. Watch this space!
At the time of writing, Boris Johnson has just announced and published his eagerly anticipated roadmap for the lifting of Covid restrictions in England. Restrictions will be eased from March 8th on a step-by-step basis. A four-stage plan could see England’s coronavirus restrictions finally lifted by June 21st. Overall, the PM is adopting an uncharacteristically cautious tone, perhaps stung by criticism over his fatally gung ho, optimistic approach the last time round.
However, one aspect of the plan causing controversy is the decision to send all school children back to school on March 8th, with no phased return, as recommended by the scientific advisers and as preferred by the other U.K. devolved administrations. There will be provision for pupils to be tested. Pupils in secondary schools and colleges will be asked to use a lateral flow device when they return, and if they test negative, they will be allowed to resume face-to-face classes.
The decision comes despite calls from education unions to adopt a “phased return” of students – similar to in Wales and Scotland where schools began reopening to the youngest pupils on Monday. The scepticism from the unions is understandable. The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) has said its “consensus view remains that the full re-opening of schools is likely to increase the R-rate by a factor of 1.1 to 1.5 (10 per cent to 50 per cent)”. Data published by the Office for National Statistics ONS, also confirmed teaching union fears that teachers have a higher probability of testing positive for Covid than most other occupations, being 5.4% for secondary school teachers, which is even higher than for nurses at 4.8%!
If your mantra is that reopening schools is the priority, this would seem one area where ministers may want to tailor the official advice and provide teachers with the reassurance of a vaccine and therefore remove the central barrier for them returning to work. But that would be too much like common sense, though, wouldn’t it? 🤷🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
The hopeful and optimistic overtones generated by the PM’s announcement will have provided a welcome distraction from the other problems that were stacking up at No.10 this week. It’s been an absolute road crash of a week on several fronts.
For example, the High Court ruled that Health Secretary Matt Hancock had acted unlawfully when his department did not reveal details of contracts it had agreed during the pandemic within 30 days of them being signed. The judge, Mr Justice Chamberlain, ruled the failure to do so breached the “vital public function” of transparency over how “vast quantities” of taxpayers’ money was spent. The judgment is a victory for the Good Law Project (GLP), a crowdfunded, not-for-profit organisation that is making a series of legal challenges related to the government’s procurement of PPE and other services during the pandemic. This is really quite damning, and was followed up by an ill advised tv interview, where the Health Secretary was interrogated by Good Morning Britain presenters Piers Morgan and Susanna Reid. In the cringe inducing, tetchy exchanges, Hancock refused to apologise for breaking the law and even asserted that people should be thanking “his team” for all the hard work they’ve put in! Humility is clearly not his strong point! He also shrugged off allegations that a mate who used to own his favourite local bar, was awarded a government contract worth millions to produce vaccine vials (test tubes), despite there being no tendering process and despite having no prior experience in this field. Seems legit! 🤔
In other bad news for Boris and another nail in the coffin of open and transparent government, the union representing senior civil servants has announced it is launching a judicial review seeking to “overturn” the PM’s ruling that Home Secretary, Priti Patel, did not breach the ministerial code. The intervention comes after the decision by the Prime Minister last year to completely disregard the findings of an investigation into the Home Secretary’s behaviour written by his independent ethics adviser. Sir Alex Allan, who produced the report and later quit after his advice was overruled, found evidence of bullying and that Ms Patel had not always treated Civil Servants with ‘consideration and respect’. However, in a statement this week, the FDA union said it could not allow the PM to “simply let this issue rest”, as it announced legal action to “overturn” the prime minister’s decision in November. Boris may yet regret standing by his long time ally, Patel, who has been no stranger to controversy as both Home Secretary and previously as International Development Secretary.
And just what has been going on inside No.10 Downing Street over the past week? Just two weeks after Boris Johnson’s senior adviser on ethnic minorities, Samuel Kasumu, resigned complaining of “unbearable” tension within Downing Street (but then was persuaded to stay on), there has been another sudden and seemingly rancorous departure!
The apparent purge of former Vote Leave staffers in Boris Johnson’s inner circle has continued with the departure of Oliver Lewis, a key aide who was appointed to head the No 10 unit devoted to keeping the union together just over a fortnight ago! Lewis, who was head of research at the Vote Leave campaign under Dominic Cummings, also acted as the de facto deputy to David Frost when he negotiated the UK’s Brexit deal. Cummings himself departed suddenly back in November, along with long time ally, Lee Cain. Friends said Lewis had decided to resign, as he felt his position inside Downing Street had become untenable – with one suggesting he had been accused of leaking to the press. However, Michael Gove has been accused of orchestrating the removal of Lewis in an attempt to retain his position at the heart of Government, it has been alleged. The plot thickens! All of these revolving door goings on paint a chaotic picture of life inside the Boris Johnson regime, with Machiavellian plotting and back stabbing a plenty. It really does seem like they’re acting out successive episodes of the satirical comedy drama, The Thick Of It, at times! If you’ve never watched it, it’s on BBC iPlayer, but comes with a bad language health warning!
In other news, Nicola Sturgeon is having a spot of bother with former colleague, friend and Party boss, Alex Salmond, who is due to give evidence to a Holyrood inquiry into allegations that the First Minister was dishonest about meetings she had with Salmond while he was under investigation for sexual harassment. Charges he was subsequently acquitted of. He now feels that former comrades, including Sturgeon, were happy to throw him under the bus, as it were, and he’s not happy about it!
Oh, and Sir Keir Starmer made a keynote speech this week, where he attempted to lay out his vision for the Labour Party in the years ahead and what they would do if they were returned to power. He attempted to invoke the post-war spirit after 1945, when Britain embarked on a massive rebuilding and modernisation programme but also instigated huge social reforms, such as the introduction of the welfare state. His key message was “no return to the old normal”, a direct criticism of a decade of Tory austerity which left the country and NHS woefully ill-prepared for the pandemic. Starmer made plenty of grandiose but quite general pledges, with nothing too specific, which was perhaps the problem. I was left feeling distinctly underwhelmed, to be honest. If Starmer and Labour are to win back the voters trust, he will need to find more of that most unquantifiable of qualities – charismatic authority! I’m afraid we need a bit more oomph, Keir! Luckily, he’s still got a bit of time!
And so to America! It looks like there is a serious conflict under way to wrestle control of the Republican Party in the post-Trump era. Increasingly, there has been a growing movement among Republican fundraisers to try to fight off threats from the Trump-supporting majority, which has maintained its hold on the Republican base, despite Trump’s loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Though still in a minority, Trump’s critics – and the wealthy donors who are backing them – are working hard on multiple fronts to try to prise control of the party away from those still wedded to the Trump camp.
In particular, Nikki Haley, the ex-Trump UN ambassador who is eyeing a presidential run in 2024, is due to host Zoom fundraisers for her Political Action Committee (Pac), and is expected to draw dozens of big Republican donors attracted to her criticism of Trump during the Senate trial, when Haley said she was “disgusted” and “angry” at Trump’s role in the 6 January riot. Her fundraising Pac, named Stand for America, is expected to also support Liz Cheney and others who voted to impeach Trump. Another intensive effort to try to challenge Trumpism within the GOP is also being mounted by a new Pac called Country First, which was unveiled in late January by the Illinois congressman Adam Kinzinger, one of just 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach Trump. Like Haley, Kinzinger was outspoken after the Senate failed to convict Trump, despite heavy criticism from within his own state. These are fascinating developments and it will be interesting to see who ultimately triumphs in the ongoing war over the very soul of the Republican Party.
And speaking of the loyal Trump supporters and enablers within the GOP, one of the most prominent in recent months has been Texas Senator, Ted Cruz. Despite spectacularly falling out with Trump during their bitter rivalry for the Republican Presidential nomination race, Cruz has been accused of very cynically backing Trump in his final months and days in order to secure the support of the Trump base for his next tilt at the presidency. So, it may have come as little surprise to his many political enemies that this political chameleon, who spinelessly runs with the fox and hunts with the hounds, would be found wanting during a major crisis in his home state.
I mean, who takes off to a sunny beach resort in Mexico for a family holiday when your home state is suffering from a freak blitz of snow and ice that left millions without power or running water? Ted Cruz, that’s who! What on earth was he thinking? He has been royally caught out committing a fundamental political error — deserting his constituents in their hour of need. Never mind that the US government strongly advises against travel to Mexico during the pandemic, and Cruz himself warned Texans to stay home due to dangerous weather. Cruz then compounded his woes with a cack-handed effort to retrieve the situation. He jetted back home once his escape to the sun was exposed, and released a statement protesting he was trying to be a good dad because his daughters wanted a trip to Cancun. Cruz doesn’t have a formal role in responding to the storm, but as a senator, he has clout in Washington and could help to generate and mobilize support for his state, as well as obviously offering solidarity to its beleaguered citizens. This may be one that comes back to haunt Cruz in the future and may even dent those presidential ambitions, with any luck!
And speaking of Trump enablers, one of the most significant of all was not a politician but a radio and tv broadcaster by the name of Rush Limbaugh. Some say Rush Limbaugh was Trump before Trump.
The ultra conservative radio icon, who died on Wednesday after a battle with cancer, had spent decades preparing the ground and building the angry Republican base that became the Trump base. Without Limbaugh, Fox News may never have found a foothold either — he basically invented the right-wing propagandizing that now fills the network’s evening schedule. He was a close personal friend of Donald Trump, so his loss will be keenly felt by the ex-president. The more liberal and progressive half of American society and the political sphere will certainly not be mourning his passing, however. Somewhat ironically, Limbaugh died of lung cancer after spending years denying the fact that smoking caused the disease.
Students of US Politics will no doubt be aware of the much maligned practice of pork barrelling which had been a very prevalent means of conducting congressional business until quite recently.
Earmarks, which facilitated the pork barrelling, were simply considered the cost of doing business in Washington. There are legendary tales of pork barrel spending, such as the infamous Bridge to Nowhere, in Gravina Island, Alaska, proposed by Senator Ted Stevens. The bridge was projected to cost $398 million! This and other eye wateringly expensive pet projects got earmarks a bad name, and it was good politics for the conservative House majority to outlaw them from 2011. However, they may be due for a comeback soon. Without backhanders, party leaders struggled to get members to cast tough votes, further cementing an era of gridlock. Now House and Senate Democrats are considering a return of earmarks so members get some credit for sending money home. I can’t wait to see some of the huge, white elephant vanity projects that will emerge from this in a few years!
Meanwhile, the massive scale and scope of the FBI investigation into the invasion of the Capitol buildings have been revealed. Already the number of people who have been arrested, either by the FBI, Capitol police or local Washington DC officers has reached 235 and counting, spanning more than 40 sates. As the investigation widens and deepens, the focus is tightening on anyone considered to have acted as a coordinator of the action in an attempt to take out the ringleaders.
The FBI has set up a special strike force of experienced federal prosecutors who have been given the express instruction to pursue aggressive sedition and conspiracy charges. So far at least 26 people have been charged with conspiracy or assault. At least 10 members of the extremist group the Proud Boys are among the mounting number of those arrested, including the self-declared Proud Boys leader – Ethan Nordean. On the back of mounting evidence of the Proud Boys’ leadership role in the attack, the Canadian government even moved to designate the group as a terrorist organization. Meanwhile, several members of the Oath Keepers, one of the largest far-right militia groups in the US, have also been arrested.
Perhaps an even more worrying aspect emerging from the investigation is the number of current and former law enforcement officers and military personnel who are among them. The roll of dishonour so far includes eight former marine and at least four law enforcement officers who were actively serving in their positions at the time of the 6 January attack. They have since left their jobs. One of the emerging truths that FBI detectives and prosecutors will have to wrestle with is that, despite the substantial presence of white supremacists and military personnel, most of those who have been arrested are what might be described as unremarkable Americans with no previous criminal records or history of extremist behaviour. Now, that is worrying! 😳
Finally, it looks like President Biden may fall short on a key demand by the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party – student debt relief! In the starkest terms he’s used to date, President Joe Biden made it explicit on Tuesday night that he favours only modest student loan debt relief over the more ambitious proposal his progressive base, and party leaders in the Senate, are demanding.
Then, on Wednesday, his White House suggested that even that modest package may not happen. Speaking to reporters at the daily briefing Wednesday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden planned to hold off on making any decisions on student loan debt executive action until his appointees at the Justice Department have a chance to review the issue. There is no immediate time frame on that legal review process, which will happen alongside a review by Biden’s domestic policy advisers, she said. This will come as a big disappointment to people like Elizabeth Warren and even Chuck Schumer, not to mention those further to left like Aexandria Ocasio Cortez.
Well, that’s me for another week, folks! I hope you’ve enjoyed reading . Please feel free to share or access the blog back catalogue via McGuckin’s Weekly Digest @ WordPress.com. Until next week then, stay informed, stay tuned in and stay safe out there! Bye! 👋🏻
The Weekly Politics Digest! 