Welcome to the 21st of my Weekly Digest politics blogs, as published via WordPress.com. Any notions that 2021 was going to be less fraught, less frantic or less unpredictable than the unprecedented nature of 2020, are being well and truly dispelled by now. We are only at the end of January and there has been so much eye popping political news already in my selected jurisdictions of N. Ireland, U.K., and USA. This last week has been no exception, so there is no rest for the wicked, as they say! As always, I will endeavour to make sense of it all and offer an opinion or two, which not everyone will agree with, obviously. Hopefully, I can avoid the necessity for any litigation, at least! 😇 As per usual, I shall begin with N Ireland politics.
One year after devolution was restored in N Ireland, the Executive Committee has finally got around to broaching the subject of producing a Programme for Government. A Consultation has been launched on the proposals which will run until March, which will be followed by a Draft Programme that will be debated and voted on, before the actual document is ready to be implemented. Even allowing for pandemic disruption, the political and bureaucratic wheels turn very slowly on the Stormont train. Needless to say, there is nothing overly ground breaking on offer and many of the most contentious and difficult issues on the ‘to do list’ are either conspicuous by their absence or have received the ‘constructive ambiguity’ treatment. NI politicians have turned the avoidance of making difficult decisions into something of an art form, it seems!
Of course, we all know that the NI Assembly often works in strange ways. It’s not your typical kind of legislature, after all. In fact, as a consociationalist form of government, founded on the principle of power sharing in a post-conflict society, it is quite unique. Perhaps this is why we had this week’s absurd spectacle of MLA’s debating decisions/actions that have already been taken and implemented by the ruling Executive. Laws which had already been made by Executive Order, in essence, with no democratic debate or vote. This time around it was in relation to the decision to implement further lockdown restrictions around the Christmas period. No, not for next Christmas, it’s for the one that’s just passed. Yes, that’s right, NI MLA’s spent a day debating decisions and legislation that have already been implemented! This is a practice which has become almost routine, and most in the chamber appear to just wearily accept it. However, People Before Profit’s Gerry Carroll denounced it as “the nonsensical charade whereby we are expected retrospectively to give approval to or discuss regulations that have long been implemented and, in some cases, are out of date. There is no real semblance of oversight, transparency or accountability.” Ah, oversight (scrutiny), transparency and accountability! These are not concepts with which our political leadership in NI are overly conversant, at times, it would seem!
And speaking of accountability. It would appear that the issue of mass attendance at Republican funerals is one that is determined to run and run. This week we were made aware of yet another such funeral taking place, displaying blatant disregard for the current Covid restrictions. Several members (not senior) of Sinn Fein were present, stirring the still fermenting pot of disquiet over the events at the funeral of senior Republican, Bobby Storey, last year!
The problem remains that to ordinary members of the public, it shows a lack of political leadership on the Republican side and a failure to take responsibility and set an example. It was hypocritical of Michelle O’Neill and Mary Lou McDonald to take such fulsome roles in a mass funeral, attended by thousands, and then expect people to listen to them when appealing to them to adhere strictly to the Covid rules. It also appears as though the police are at best impotent, and at worst complicit in actions which are openly spreading Covid. The fact that the PSNI took more than five months to investigate Ms O’Neill and other senior Sinn Fein members present at Bobby Storey’s funeral, despite overwhelming evidence of what happened, and the PPS still not having decided whether to bring charges does nothing to convey the seriousness of the situation or the fact that compliance is required due to the imminent threat to life of coronavirus transmission at such gatherings!
This week’s Twitter twit? It has to be Ex-DUP MLA, Nelson McCausland, who triggered quite the storm on Monday when he tweeted “the fascinating story of Becket Cook”. Mr Cook is a gay man in Hollywood who had achieved success as a set designer in the fashion industry. In an apparent endorsement of highly controversial ‘gay conversion therapy’, Mr McCausland referred to a story being shared about Mr Cook publicly renouncing his homosexuality after turning to God. McCausland tweeted; “A powerful testimony of a life changed by God and some important insights into the whole ‘gay movement’ from someone who has been there.” While Mr McCausland is entitled to his personal views, no matter how objectionable some may find them, it is the fact that even though he may no longer be a frontline politician, as a member on the Board of the Education Authority, he is still very much a public figure with some influence over education policy, potentially. There have been calls, therefore, from a variety of sources for him to resign from this influential post! I doubt he will go without a fight!
And so to arguably the biggest story of the week, which has N Ireland at its centre, but involves the EU, plus the U.K. and Irish governments. Yes, it’s the Astra Zeneca vaccine row which has exploded on the continent and has managed to engulf little old NI in its blast radius! In one act, the EU has managed to achieve something quite remarkable and unprecedented in the political history of NI, that is a unanimity of outrage and disapproval right across the political spectrum here! Arlene Foster saw her angry reaction to the EU’s invoking of Article 16 of the NI Protocol almost matched by Nationalist politicians of various hues and even the Irish government. Everyone on the island of a Ireland seemed unanimous in their condemnation of the arbitrary and seemingly knee jerk action by the EU. Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol is the part of the deal that allows the EU and UK to choose to suspend any aspects they consider are causing “economic, societal or environmental difficulties”.
On Friday evening the EU announced it would trigger the clause and introduce the export controls on its vaccines entering Northern Ireland in a bid to prevent the region becoming a backdoor for vaccines to be sent to GB. This immediately attracted widespread criticism from all quarters, including all five Executive parties and the Irish Government. Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster was the most forthright, describing it as “an absolutely incredible act of hostility” that created a hard Irish border, which may have been over egging it a little, while Ireland’s Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said in a tweet: “The [Northern Ireland] Protocol is not something to be tampered with lightly, it’s an essential, hard-won compromise, protecting peace and trade for many.” Some commentators did remark upon the contradictory position of Mrs Foster, whose party has been calling on the British Government to do the very same thing due to the trading difficulties arising from the post-Brexit Irish Sea border. We really do live in strange and confusing times, especially if you’re in the DUP, it would appear! Mind you, the EU could be accused of some rank hypocrisy here, too, having previously lectured the UK government about respecting the Irish Protocol – which was painstakingly drafted during Brexit negotiations. Their knee jerk action was later withdrawn after a conciliatory telephone conversation between Boris Johnston and EU President, Ursula von der Leyen.
The entire sorry episode has been viewed as an unfortunate mistake by the European Commission, borne out of frustration at what they viewed as unfair vaccine distribution. In truth, however, their ire should be directed at the company manufacturing the vaccine, rather than the UK. Last summer the EU agreed to buy up to 400m doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, but the company later said that due to problems at one of its EU factories, supplies would be reduced by about 60% in the first quarter of 2021. The U.K. based arm of their manufacturing output seems unaffected, however. The unseemly spat has prompted the World Health Organisation to issue a warning to all countries to work together and avoid any kind of Covid nationalism. The reality is, the world does not go back to any kind of normality until all of humanity has equal access to vaccines, which is lost on some, as we can see from the U.K. tabloid headline below.
The U.K. is significantly ahead of the game in terms of vaccines administered when compared to other countries and Boris Johnston got a further boost this week with good news on yet another vaccine. The Novavax vaccine which is 89.3% effective against the virus and 85.6% effective against the more transmissible UK variant has been unveiled – and Britain has 60 million doses ordered. The Novavax worked against the disease variant first identified in Kent, which has proved to be up to 70% more infectious, the Department of Health said. It is believed to be less effective against the South African variant, however. Despite this, this is undoubtedly good news for the U.K. The jab still needs approval from the UK regulator, but if approved by the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency – 60 million doses will be delivered to the UK in the second half of this year. Manufacturing of the drug would take place on Teesside.
Boris Johnston badly needs a win on the Brexit front right now, too, and so it was announced to great fanfare this week that he has launched an ambitious bid for Britain to join one of the world’s biggest trading blocs in Asia. Formal talks on the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership will start later this year. Johnson said: “One year after our departure from the EU we are forging new partnerships that will bring enormous economic benefits for the people of Britain.” The club includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Vietnam, Canada, Malaysia and Peru and was worth £111 billion in U.K. trade last year. No10 says the move is a key part of the Government’s plan to build new international trade deals outside the EU. International Trade Secretary Liz Truss said: “This will create enormous opportunities for UK businesses that simply weren’t there before.” Well, that’s not entirely true, is it? As part of the EU trading bloc, which has existing trade agreements in place, the U.K. had full access to those markets in Asia already. This may eventually reap more dividends, but the extent of any added benefits will be debatable. A UK government study in 2018 suggested that trade deals with non-EU countries and blocs such as China, India, Australia, the Gulf countries and south-east Asia would only raise British GDP by a total of 0.1-0.4 per cent over the long term. (Source – Financial Times) Never let the bald facts get in the way of a good news story, though, eh?
He may need the blue passport some day soon for travelling to Scotland, too! Johnston made the journey north this week, in order to make the case for the preservation of the Union by using the vaccine roll out as a stand out example of the benefits of staying together. In a remarkable coincidence, the Department for Business announced production had begun of a new Covid vaccine at a site in West Lothian. The only problem is, Boris Johnston is not particularly welcome north of the border these days. In fact, he is politically toxic and any intervention in the independence argument by him is guaranteed to back fire and be counter productive. And so it proved! Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, questioned whether his trip to a Scotland was necessary in the current situation, saying it was not an essential journey. A recent poll for the BBC found just 19% of Scots thought Johnson had handled the pandemic well. By comparison, 74% judged Sturgeon to have done well.
Boris is inextricably linked to a deeply unpopular Brexit and its dire economic consequences for Scotland, to the point it is noticeable Mr Johnson is steering away from even making the economic case for staying in the union. This argument carried some weight when deployed ahead of the 2014 independence referendum, but not now! It is harder to make the case if you championed leaving a union despite all the evidence showing it would leave you economically worse off. What a shocker!
Okay, let’s head stateside to see how Joe Biden has been getting on with his ambitious agenda. Is he still hitting the ground running or is the positive momentum showing any signs of slowing down already? Joe Biden’s ambitious plans to fight climate change, in particular, were front and centre this week. To be a success on this front, though, Joe will have to tread carefully. Climate politics is changing in the United States. The growing influence of younger voters has made climate change a top issue, particularly among liberals, but increasingly among swing voters and the more enlightened Republicans, too.
Abroad, Biden must regain some international credibility, despite the US’ constant u-turns every time power switches between Republicans and Democrats. On the domestic front, the White House needs to tackle the argument head on that doing even the minimum about climate change will destroy the economy and US jobs, before it can think about passing permanent legislation. President Biden launched offensives on both fronts as he signed Executive Orders that pause new oil and natural gas leases on public lands or offshore waters and direct every layer of government to combat global warming. Meanwhile, his new Climate envoy, the ex-Secretary of State and environmental campaigner who played a big role in the Paris accord, set out on his mission to restore US credibility overseas. Biden also plans to hold a climate summit for world leaders in April to build momentum for global climate talks in Glasgow in November.
However, Biden cannot leave a real legacy on combatting climate change just by signing orders that a future Republican president can wipe out with his pen. He needs to oversee the passage of new laws on cutting emissions and financing a new green economy. So he needs to win the argument first, which is why he made this statement in the Oval Office on Wednesday; “Today is climate day at the White House, which means that today is jobs day at the White House,” portraying green energy innovation not as a threat to American workers but as a massive opportunity.
President Biden also signed a presidential memorandum on Thursday to reverse restrictions on abortion access domestically and abroad, imposed and expanded by the Trump administration. The memorandum will “reverse my predecessor’s attack on women’s health access,” Biden told reporters during a signing ceremony in the Oval Office. The memorandum also directs the Health and Human Services Department to immediately move to consider rescinding the Trump administration rule blocking health care providers in the federally funded Title X family planning program from referring patients for abortions, according to the Biden administration. This will undoubtedly come as a blow to the more socially conservative Republicans in Congress.
Meanwhile, left leaning Representative Alexandra Ocasio Cortez (AOC) has been involved in a spat with prominent right wing Republican Senator, Ted Cruz. In a rare act of solidarity, but for entirely different motivations, Cruz had endorsed Ocasio-Cortez’s call on Twitter for a congressional hearing about the decision by the online trading platform Robinhood to restrict trading in GameStop shares. But while welcoming the chance to work across party lines on the issue, Ocasio-Cortez had harsh words for Cruz.
“I am happy to work with Republicans on this issue where there’s common ground, but you almost had me murdered 3 weeks ago so you can sit this one out,” Ocasio-Cortez tweeted. “Happy to work w/ almost any other GOP that aren’t trying to get me killed. In the meantime if you want to help, you can resign.”
Ocasio-Cortez is one of several key political figures to publicly blame Cruz for his role in inciting the deadly violence on Capitol Hill on 6 January. Seven Democratic senators have filed a formal complaint, urging the Senate Ethics Committee to investigate Cruz, along with the Missouri senator Josh Hawley, because of their determined efforts to block the certification of Joe Biden’s election. Ted needs to be careful! AOC, is a member of the so-called ‘Squad’, a group of very liberal, young, female, ethnically diverse, recently elected representatives who form an unofficial bloc within Congress and make for formidable adversaries. The group also includes Ilhan Omar, a Muslim representative who drafted the recent articles of impeachment against Trump.
Finally, an update on what’s happening with Trump’s impeachment trial. Well, there’s good news and very bad news on that front. Firstly, the good news; Former President Donald Trump’s five impeachment defense attorneys have resigned from his legal team only days before his trial is set to begin, amid a disagreement over his legal strategy. It was a dramatic development in the second impeachment trial for Trump, who has struggled to find lawyers willing to take his case. Trump is clinging to his election fraud charade and suddenly finds himself without legal representation. He can’t even call upon his long time legal representative, Rudy Giuliani, as they had a very public falling out recently over what Giuliani claimed were unpaid legal fees. So, is it all going wrong for team Trump? Well, maybe not!
Now for the very bad news! Nearly every Senate Republican declared on Tuesday that putting a former president on trial for impeachment is unconstitutional, indicating that the House’s case against Donald Trump is almost certain to fail. After only five Republican senators voted with Democrats, some in the new majority are signalling they’d like to quickly focus their attention elsewhere. If it wasn’t obvious before, they say, it’s now clear the GOP isn’t going to convict Trump!
Well, that’s me for another week, folks! Once again, it looks like there’s no such thing as a slow news week anymore! I hope you’ve enjoyed reading? Please feel free to share and come back next week for more insight into the murky yet fascinating world of politics in NI, UK and USA! In the meantime, stay tuned in, stay informed and stay safe! 🤓👍
The Weekly Politics Digest! 