Welcome back, folks, to my Weekly Digest politics blog, where I give my tuppence-worth on the latest political developments to catch my eye in NI, the UK and the USA. I was expecting a much quieter week, with a more light touch article, after the momentous conclusion of the US Election last week. Well, how wrong could I be? This has been a long way from a slow news week, and not just in the US, either! Seismic, reverberating political shocks are coming thick and fast in all three of my selected jurisdictions. So, without further a-do, let’s go to work and try to make sense of it all, beginning, as always, in N. Ireland.
Well, what a tumultuous week that has been up at Stormont? Even by their usual meagre standards, this week has been a cringeworthy embarrassment of epic proportions for the NI Executive! When faced with a crisis, admittedly an unprecedented and unrivalled crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic, it had been hoped that old enmities would be left to one side and our political leaders would work together in solidarity against a common enemy for the common good. Nope! That was wishful thinking, I’m afraid!
The issue of whether to extend partial lockdown restrictions, impose further restrictions, or ease the existing restrictions proved to be intractable, as it became clear that opinions between the DUP and the rest of the Executive parties were bitterly divided on the issue. The DUP wanted all of the current restrictions lifted, as they had promised, after Fri 13th Nov, whereas the other parties were prepared to follow the scientific and medical advice being given by Michael McBride, the Chief Medical Officer, the Chair of the PHA (Public Health Agency) and the Head of the BMA (British Medical Assoc) in NI. They all wanted the NI Executive to implement a further 2-week lockdown, at a minimum. They cited the still worrying rates of Covid transmission and worryingly high levels of hospital admissions, threatening to overwhelm our already underfunded and under resourced health service.
The DUP’s deployment of its Executive veto (separate to the petition of concern mechanism in the Assembly) to block the other Executive parties from agreeing to an extension of the current restrictions, led to accusations from all of the other Executive parties and many others that it was inappropriate to use a device that was designed to protect the rights of unionism or nationalism from abuse. Yet the DUP was using this mechanism, against a unionist Health Minister, to block a democratic vote in the Executive on a crucial issue relating to public health in the middle of a pandemic! The DUP were acting within the letter of the law but clearly not within the spirit of the regulations, as laid out in the St Andrews Agreement, 2007.
After days of wrangling, and while businesses, particularly in the hospitality sector, waited with baited breath, a number of comprise solutions emerged, put forward by Economy Minister, Diane Dodds, Health Minister, Robin Swann, and finally by an increasingly exasperated Justice Minister, Naomi Long, before the impasse was broken. It took an excruciatingly long time to get to the point where they were able to agree to Long’s proposal. This cannot be seen as anything other than a total failure of mandatory coalition government, just at that very moment when we were most willing it to work! That one time we needed strong leadership, unity and clarity of purpose and decisiveness, they collectively failed to provide it! How profoundly damning and depressing is that? I fear we have finally hit rock bottom! At least there is only one way to go from here and that is upwards. Ever the optimist!
Let’s get out of here and fly over to the Westminster bubble to seek some solace! That’ll be another ‘nope’, I’m afraid, as it’s been quite the omnishambles over there this week, too!
The week began badly for Boris Johnson and his government with a House of Lords defeat. Peers defeated the government by 433 votes to 165 on Monday night, amending the government’s Internal Market Bill to remove clauses that override the Brexit deal with the EU on Northern Ireland. Number Ten had already pledged ahead of the vote to use its Commons majority to reinsert the offending clauses, which ministers have admitted break international law in a “limited and specific way”. However, the decision would put Mr Johnson on a collision-course with US President-elect, Joe Biden, who has warned he would not sign a trade deal with the UK if the prime minister presses ahead.
Then, there is the looming Brexit trade negotiation deadline with the EU itself that shows no sign of resolution! There are real fears that Britain will be plunged into a “ruinous” no-deal scenario. The UK and EU have already missed their mid-October deadline for a deal and Brussels now wants one by mid-November. Um, this is kind of mid-November, isn’t it? It is thought they’ll reopen next week, to make one final push for a breakthrough! With typical understatement, Downing Street admitted “significant gaps” still remain between the two sides and “time is in short supply”. Even Ireland’s worried Taoiseach, Micheal Martin, warned the UK must “knuckle down” if it wants to hammer out a post-Brexit trade deal. Well, indeed!
In other even more sensational developments, Dominic Cummings and newly appointed Chief of Staff, Lee Cain have both left Downing Street after internal ructions. Initially, it was stated that Cummings would continue to work from home, on issues such as mass coronavirus testing, until the middle of December, but this is questionable. The Prime Minister is said to want to “clear the air and move on”.
Mr Cummings has been at the heart of a No 10 power struggle, which has also seen former Communications Director, Lee Cain leave, just one day after being appointed as Number Ten’s Chief of Staff! A number of Tory MPs have publicly welcomed the pair’s departure as a chance for Mr Johnson to make a fresh start. It has been reported by several media sources that Boris Johnson’s fiancé, Carrie Symonds, had a hand in the departures! There have been allegations of inappropriate/unflattering text messages about Ms Symmonds being sent between the departing Cummings and Cain.
Voters may not care about the characters or gossip involved but they will care that a dysfunctional No 10 is embroiled in a bitter round of bloodletting as the country is still battling with the Covid-19 pandemic, a ballooning economic crisis and Brexit. On the day the UK reached the depressing milestone of 50,000 coronavirus deaths, few will be impressed that those at the heart of Downing Street were engaged in a petty power struggle over perceived disrespect towards the PM’s partner, or who has the most access to the PM.
Dominic Cummings has long been regarded as a highly controversial figure within British politics. He rose to prominence as the mastermind of the successful Brexit referendum campaign, and followed that up by steering Boris Johnson and the Conservatives to a landslide election victory. However, his Westminster outsider, anti-establishment stance has not gone down so well during his recent tenure as Boris Johnson’s Chief Adviser at No10. He has taken a wrecking ball approach to reforming the senior civil service in Whitehall and has been blamed for developing a fatally flawed strategy to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. This has not been helped by his now infamous breach of the lockdown restrictions on his trip to Barnard Castle! This highlighted an arrogance, disrespect and sense of entitlement which has not endeared him to the British public. He was, by all accounts, not a very popular figure within Downing Street, either, or within the parliamentary Conservative Party for that matter, which may well have helped to seal his fate! This week’s goings on in No 10 appear to have been the final straw for Boris, who seems to have been enthralled to this enigmatic svengali for far too long. This surely raises questions about Johnson’s judgement and leadership credentials, too! The Tory knives may well be sharpening!
In other news, which may have slipped under the radar somewhat, experts have admitted they don’t know how far schools might be fuelling England’s coronavirus second wave after they recorded more than 1,000 groups of Covid-19 cases. National Statistician, Sir Ian Diamond, is set to lead a review after the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) revealed the worrying toll of incidents. New SAGE papers say there have been more than 1,000 “clusters and outbreaks” – of two or more cases each – in education settings since schools reopened in September. Virus rates have “risen significantly” in school-age children since around the time schools reopened, SAGE added. Children aged 12-16 played a significantly higher role in introducing infection into households since September. The effect was less marked for under-12s, it seems. However, despite this, SAGE said there is still not conclusive evidence either way about how far schools are fuelling the virus. Hmm? 🤔
And so to America, where the post-election ramifications just rumble on, as Donald Trump steadfastly refuses to concede electoral defeat to Joe Biden. Trump is increasingly looking like a King Canute type figure, desperately trying to defy the incoming tide which will inevitably engulf him! As I shall outline here, it has been a bad week for Donald and a very productive one for Joe!
Any legal experts worth their salt have been saying for over a week now that President Donald Trump’s court cases to throw out ballots and turn around his election loss were doomed to failure. Sure enough, as this week wore on, the court losses piled up. In one day, nine cases attacking Joe Biden’s win in key states were denied or dropped, adding up to a devastating series of losses for the President. The Trump campaign lost 6 cases in Montgomery County and Philadelphia County in Pennsylvania over whether almost 9,000 absentee ballots could be thrown out.
The Trump campaign dropped a lawsuit in Arizona, seeking a review by hand of all ballots. A Republican candidate and voters in Pennsylvania lost a case over absentee ballots that arrived after Election Day, because they didn’t have the ability to sue. A case addressing similar issue is still waiting on decisions from the Supreme Court, which has remained noticeably silent on election disputes since before Election Day. Republican Pollwatchers in Michigan lost their case to stop the certification of votes in Detroit, and a judge rejected their allegations of fraud. On top of all of that, a law firm leading the broadest challenge in Pennsylvania, dropped out!
And yet, other lawyers representing Trump, Republicans and voters unhappy with the election’s result blindly forge ahead, as part of an increasingly desperate attempt to swing the Electoral College in Trump’s favour, no matter about the popular vote and swing state victories for Biden. Despite this, it looks like the writing is already on the wall for many of Trump’s election claims and in many cases, already on paper.
If one was to look at this through an ultra critical lense, we could conclude that Trump is cynically financially exploiting his ever loyal support base for donations. Trump supporters are being bombarded with online appeals for help with the significant expense of the ongoing court cases. However, it has been revealed that there is also a clause buried in the small print of the donation appeals, making it clear that some of the money raised will be used to pay off Trump’s significant debts accrued over the presidential campaign! Is Trump exploiting the self-generated electoral fraud fears to clear his campaign debts before leaving the White House? We would never suggest such a thing! 😏
In further bad news for the President, some prominent Republican Senators and Congressmen have publicly conceded to Biden’s electoral victory and some are now saying he should be given access to the White House security briefings, as would usually be the case for Presidents-elect. Trump, however, remains in no mood to concede or engage with the usual handover protocols.
Meanwhile, in the real world, President-elect Biden continues to ignore all of the court shenanigans and is busily working towards his January 20 inauguration. He has named his all important Chief of Staff already, his longtime aide Ron Klain. Klain is a man with vast Washington and West Wing experience, having worked in the Clinton administration and also, tellingly, as Obama’s Ebola Czar. Biden has also set up a Covid Task Force, which includes a range of medical and scientific experts, such as infectious diseases expert, Michael Osterholm. Osterholm has already suggested a possible four-week nationwide lockdown with the government covering wages and losses for many companies. This would be in stark contrast to the Trump administration’s approach to the pandemic. The Biden administration is already looking more professional and competent, and they haven’t even started yet! Joe Biden is also making and taking calls with an array of foreign leaders, including Boris Johnson. This would indicate a clear change of direction and tone on foreign policy by the incoming Biden administration, who will seek to re-engage with the international community and organisations like the EU, UN, NATO, WHO. etc, after 4 years of Trump’s more isolationist ‘America First’ policies.
Well, that’s your lot for this week, folks! I’m hoping for slower news week next week. What are the chances? Slim, I suspect, but sure, would we have it any other way? No, we politics geeks just love it, of course, in the same way that other people love to read about celebrity gossip and tittle tattle! Although, as American tv host and political commentator, Jay Leno, once said; – “Politics is just show business for ugly people!” 🤷🏻♂️ Until next week, then, stay tuned in, stay informed and stay safe! 👍🏻
The Weekly Politics Digest! 