Hello again, and welcome back to my Weekly Digest politics blog, where I take a wry look at selected political news stories over the past week from NI, UK and the USA! Obviously, one major story has dominated the headlines, as well as our tv screens and social media feeds this week. Yes, thatâs correct, Nigel Farage is back! đ± I jest, of course! That was not the main story, although, it does make an appearance in the âin other newsâ section, unfortunately! No, the main event was, of course, the US Presidential Election! Us dedicated followers of the world of politics have been eagerly anticipating this for weeks if not months now and, oh boy, it did not disappoint! Of course, plenty of other stuff has happened this week, too, in the NI and UK political arenas, so Iâll be giving those some attention as well. Thank you for tuning in again and I hope you enjoy reading! As per usual, letâs begin at home in Norn Iron!
Arguably, one of the starkest and most damning examples of Executiveâs failure to engender any semblance of genuine collective responsibility can be seen in their disjointed response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, an abject failure to plan for the pandemicâs second wave now enveloping our hospitals, is threatening to have dire consequences! I mean, Itâs not like they havenât known for ten months or more now that Covid-19 would be with us for the long haul!
The current restrictions in place were only as a result of some serious horse-trading between the DUP and Sinn FĂ©in, rather than any logical process of following the scientific advice. Theyâve had more than three weeks in which to decide what happens after Friday the 13th (a somewhat appropriate date, perhaps!), when the current restrictions run out. The Executive doesnât appear to have a plan â nor any consensus on what we do next! This does not inspire much confidence with the general public, nor does it necessarily encourage everyone to comply with the restrictions as their cynicism grows!
The hospitality sector, in particular, have been left in limbo, with no idea as to whether they need to plan and order stock for next week in anticipation of re-opening, or should they batten down the hatches for a more prolonged lockdown period? The only certainty is the uncertainty and it is killing some businesses!
We only have to look at contrasting statements from the different Executive parties in recent days to realise how divided they really are! We had the Edwin Poots solo run shenanigans last week followed by DUP MP, Sammy Wilson, adding his tuppence-worth this week, when he described a leading medical professionalâs comments about the need for further lockdown restrictions as irresponsible and urged the Executive to âignore him!â Dr Tom Black, Head of the British Medical Association in NI, had stated that a reopening of the hospitality sector again after Nov 13th, would be âappallingâ and âan act of vandalism!â Mr Wilson was not a happy bunny, as he has been pushing for existing restrictions to be eased! In stark contrast, the Minister for Infrastructure, Nichola Mallon (SDLP), seemed much more receptive to Dr Blackâs comments, as did the Health Minister, Robin Swann (UUP). This reflects the very different attitudes to the current crisis between the different political parties here, not least within the NI Executive Committee itself!
Okay, enough with the depressing NI political scene, letâs see if the wider UK political landscape is any more uplifting, shall we? Um, Iâm afraid not! Itâs all still a bit doom and gloom at Westminster, too, unfortunately. The biggest millstones around Boris Johnsonâs neck remain the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic and the continuing uncertainty around the looming Brexit deadline on a trade deal with the EU. This week has also seen the government perform more u-turns than Italy in major wars!
First, however, letâs deal with some good news. Rishi Sunak has confirmed the coronavirus furlough scheme will be extended until the end of March. The Chancellor said employees on furlough will receive 80% of their salaries if businesses have been forced to close under lockdown measures. In a major u-turn, (you see, thereâs the first one!) Mr Sunak tore up his plan to end the scheme when the four-week lockdown ends and instead extended it to March.
The good news for NI, is the scheme will apply across the UK, with upfront guaranteed funding for the devolved administrations to increase by ÂŁ2 billion. If only we had sufficient faith in the NI Executive to make appropriate use of it! The bad news for the UK Government, is this will cost the government a heap of money, extending their already ballooning national debt exposure! It will all have to be paid for some day! Itâs also bad for Mr Sunak, in that the current Tory golden boyâs halo has now slipped a little after this about turn! Something tells me Boris Johnson may not be entirely unhappy, as his next door neighbour has become something of a genuine rival for the top job! đ
Boris had quite a job on his hands this week to persuade an ever growing band of sceptics on his own back benches that a 4-week national lockdown was now required, as Covid-19 infection rates and hospital admissions continue to rise inexorably. Although the measure passed a vote in the House of Commons, there was a significant backbench Tory rebellion.
The decision to go for another full lockdown is something of an embarrassing u-turn for the PM, (thereâs the second one!) who had been steadfastly resisting calls for such action for several weeks, opting instead for the regional, tiered interventions. The grizzled, old cynic in me would say that the change of heart was only prompted by the fact that, until now, London and the southern counties had been much less affected by the second wave rise in cases seen up north. It has been said before that Borisâ universe does not stretch much further north than Luton!
Even worse for the PM was the fact that the scientific advice from the SAGE Committee was to go for a 2-week âcircuit breakerâ a number of weeks ago, but the indecision, delay and regional tiered approach adopted instead has only made the situation infinitely worse! Asked what difference it would have made if the Government had taken the advice of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), Prof Hayward, a world renowned epidemiologist, told BBC Radio 4âs Today programme: âWell, we canât turn back the clock. âBut, I think if we had chosen a two-week circuit-break at that time we would definitely have saved thousands of lives.â This cannot be seen as anything other than very damning for Boris and the government generally. đ€Šđ»ââïž
That conveniently takes me to u-turn number three! Boris will be suffering from dizzy spells if this continues! As predicted, the government inevitably gave in on the free school meals during holiday periods controversy. Boris Johnson finally put on his big boy pants and took some personal responsibility for the matter. He contacted the footballer turned anti-child poverty campaigner, Marcus Rashford, directly by telephone to break the good news to him. Common sense seems to have prevailed at last, or, it was simply the massive public backlash that has been very evident, and which has dogged the beleaguered PM over recent days! Itâs such a shame when we have to embarrass the government into doing the right thing!
This week also saw the return of arch political opportunist, Nigel Farage. After doing a bizarre star turn at one of Donald Trumpâs election rallies last week, he has managed to grab some attention on this side of the pond now, too. He has announced the relaunch of his Brexit Party under a new name and with the focus on a new core issue. It is now called Reform UK and itâs main focus will be to jump on the relatively small but growing anti-lockdown bandwagon. Iâm tempted to say that heâs backing a real loser with this one, but then I do recall saying that about his Brexit campaign, too! One bet Farage definitely did lose, was the ÂŁ10,000 he allegedly wagered on Donald Trump winning the US Election! đ
Right, speaking of the US Election, let me try to analyse just what the heck has been going on over there for the last week! For both the expert and casual observers, (Iâll leave you to decide which one I am!) the final lap in the race for the White House has been nothing short of enthralling! It produced bucket loads of pure political melodrama, and palpable, nail biting peaks of high tension, as well as some genuinely poignant moments, too! It was a real roller coaster of emotions for those who were invested in the outcome, on both sides of the political divide. And what a divide! If you thought we were intractably polarised in NI, I think the Americans would give us a run for our money, currently! This has been a very bitterly fought affair from the outset and the political stakes have never seemed higher. This was a battle for the very soul of America, the tv pundits would tell us. Sounds vaguely familiar, alright!
The knife-edge election would eventually and inevitably come down to a handful of key battleground states, the so-called “blue wall” or rust belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that flipped and sent Trump to the White House in 2016, plus neck and neck races in Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
By the end of polling day itself, Mr Trump falsely claimed victory and declared the election “a major fraud”, while Mr Biden, 77, said he was “on track to win this election”. But the results were incomplete, with millions of ballots still to be counted. It was always known and understood that the count would take much longer this time around, due to the massive increase in postal voting as a result of fears around the pandemic. Now, hereâs the rub, Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, had encouraged his supporters to avail of the mail-in option, where possible. Whereas, Donald Trump had actively discouraged his followers from availing of this option, appealing to them to vote in person. This was due to the fact that he believed the postal vote option was open to abuse and fraud. There was absolutely no evidence of this, whatsoever, but that didnât stop Trump from pedalling this myth for weeks in the run up to polling day. Therefore, it was pretty much inevitable that if the outcome of the election hinged on the counting of outstanding postal ballots, and if it looked like it wasnât going his way, he was going to cry foul!
Now, it wouldnât take a mathematical or statistical genius to work out, given what Iâve outlined in the previous paragraph, that a majority of postal votes would favour Biden. The in-person votes on the day were counted fairly quickly, but the mail-in votes took much longer. There are good reasons for this, as signatures need to be matched on the envelope with those on the ballot etc. There are various checks and balances in place, precisely to avoid the kind of fraud that Donald Trump alleged was routinely occurring. Therefore, this would logically mean that the initial results, based on mostly in-person ballots would make it seem like Trump was winning comfortably. However, once the counting of the millions of outstanding postal ballots moved up a gear, Joe Biden was always going to make up significant ground on Trump, and so it proved. The Trump team knew this, of course, and tried their upmost to cast doubt on the outcome by claiming that fraud on a grand scale was being perpetrated in several key, battleground states. Itâs funny, though, how this apparent, endemic fraud only occurred in these particular states. There was no mention of fraud in Florida or other states where Trump won fairly narrowly! Strange that? đ§
Despite Trumpâs fraud allegations being utterly baseless, he has nevertheless embarked upon a legal crusade, filing numerous lawsuits across a number of states, some of which have been thrown out of court already! He despatched his loyal minions out to cause mischief, too, such as his long term confidant and personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. While Rudy and Trumpâs son, Eric, gave press conferences and waived lawsuits in the air, Trump did what he has done for most of his Presidency, tweeted angrily and played golf!
By Friday it was apparent that the early Trump lead was being eroded and eventually surpassed by the tidal wave of postal ballots for Biden. An interesting demographic difference was also clearly emerging – the cities and urban conurbations were voting heavily for Biden and thatâs were most of the votes were. The more rural districts overwhelmingly voted for Trump, adding credence to the typical Trump supporting, redneck stereotype. What was also very apparent was that the African American vote had come out strongly in favour of Biden, which should come as no surprise, given recent events following the murder of George Floyd and subsequent Black Lives Matter protests across the nation. Apart from in Florida, the Hispanic/Latino vote favoured Biden, too.
By Saturday morning, our time, Joe Biden was declared the victor, after finally securing narrow, finishing line lunge wins in a number of states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and even Georgia in the Deep South. Georgia has long been a Republican stronghold, but flipped due to a strong turnout in its big cities, like Atlanta, and where there is a large African American and Latino population. Of course, Trump has been in no mood to concede and is continuing to gracelessly tweet his belief that the presidency has been stolen from him and there has been electoral fraud committed on a grand scale! It really does say something when the vast majority of the major news networks cut short his most recent impromptu press conference at the White House, because he was making so many patently untrue statements and allegations! That is unprecedented, and some might say, long overdue. He is also being admonished by FaceBook and Twitter for the same reasons! Here are some examples of the sort of tweets that have attracted their opprobrium. đČ
So, now we know that Donald Trump has lost the election, his lawsuits are doomed to fail, and Joe Biden will be resident in the White House for the next four years come January 20th. Wait, you mean Donald and Melania donât have to pack the Louis Vetton bags right now? No, in one of the strange vagaries of the US political system, President Trump remains in office for another 70 odd days. Plenty of time for him to wreak some more political havoc, unfortunately! I get the sense, however, that despite his pathological narcissism, he will eventually realise that the game is up. His âfriendsâ in the GOP (Grand Old Party) will desert him just as quickly as they jumped on his bandwagon after he secured the Republican nomination. He will have served his purpose to them and will be discarded. Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the House of Representatives, has been strangely quiet of late. Trump must also worry that, without the protective cloak of the presidency, he may be open to prosecution himself on a number of fronts, not least his tax affairs!
For Joe Biden, the task ahead is a difficult one. He will preside over a bitterly divided nation in which he will need to build bridges and mend fences. He faces an economy on the brink due to the pandemic, which he must tackle more effectively than his dismissive predecessor did. He will have a slightly narrower majority in the House of Representatives and a narrow minority in the Senate, which wonât help with passing his legislative agenda. He will also need to build bridges in foreign policy, after Trumpâs isolationism and wrecking ball style diplomacy! The Iran nuclear deal will be revisited, the EU will be re-engaged, as will NATO and the UN. Perhaps most importantly, the US will immediately re-sign the Paris Climate Change Accord. All of this will mark a return to a more normal, more civil, more stable kind of politics under Biden. He may not be everyoneâs cup of tea, but weâll take a bit of certainty, competence and a steady hand on the tiller after four years of the Trump circus! If Bidenâs first speech after his victory was confirmed is anything to go by, at least we will see a much more statesmanlike performer in the White House. Any president of the US who liberally quotes our very own Seamus Heaney, as Joe so eloquently did, has my vote!
âHistory says, donât hope On this side of the grave But then, once in a lifetime The longed-for tidal wave Of justice can rise up, And hope and history rhyme.â – Seamus Heaney
By the way, one of the most powerful images to emerge from election week, was this one of, Vice-President elect, Kamala Harris. Harris is the daughter of Jamaican and Indian immigrants, who represents the rich diversity of a country that has not always had the best track record on race relations. The evocation here of the shadow of Ruby Bridges, an iconic figure from the civil rights era, is a poignant and powerful image. If youâre not familiar with the story of Ruby Bridges, take a moment to look her up!
Well, thatâs all for this week, in what has been a momentous few days in the world of politics! Thank you for reading and please feel free to share. Until next week, stay tuned in, stay informed and stay safe! Iâm off for a long lie down!
The Weekly Politics Digest! 